方恩格專欄》國際對臺沉默 低調是最佳策略

當臺灣登上國際頭條時，通常是因臺海情勢升溫。（示意圖：shutterstock／達志）

近幾個月，臺灣在國際新聞中的篇幅明顯縮減，不如過去幾年般受到密切關注。爲何如此？或許，國際社會的利害關係，人們正經歷「臺灣疲乏」（Taiwan fatigue）；也可能，他們目前將注意力轉向其他地區。某種程度上，臺灣「幸運地」未成爲媒體焦點；畢竟，當臺灣登上國際頭條時，通常是因臺海情勢升溫。

當然，造成對臺沉默的一大關鍵人物，是現任美國總統川普。他近期並未再公開指控臺灣「竊取」美國的半導體產業。顯然，川普的言論向來對國際新聞具有重大影響，這是造成臺灣近期媒體關注度下滑的原因之一。其他原因則包括：

一、川普專注於內政：川普競選第二任期時，大多數政策訴求集中在國內事務。他最關注、最費心的內政議題包括經濟問題，與非法移民遣返。此外，他積極推動所謂的「大而美法案」（One Big, Beautiful Bill），結合稅務與預算改革，最近還與哈佛大學展開針鋒相對的攻防。

二、對外政策重點在關稅：在外交層面，川普幾乎將全部重心放在關稅議題上。美國與他國的雙邊關係，對川普而言，首要關注點是貿易失衡。希望透過談判，減少美國自他國的進口、增加出口，並促使像臺灣這樣的國家加碼對美投資。至於臺灣歷任總統，如蔡英文與現任賴清德強調的「與民主夥伴合作維護自由民主、展現區域和平決心」這類理念，並非川普外交政策中的重要事項。川普最近造訪沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達與阿拉伯聯合大公國的行程，顯示他對與非民主政權做生意一事摩拳擦掌，對於自由民主議題則興趣缺缺。

三、川普忙於協調停火協議：在他極有限的外交時間中，川普目前最優先的外務，是推動以色列與哈瑪斯之間、以及烏克蘭與俄羅斯之間的停火協議。他在去年競選總統時就承諾，將憑藉其談判技巧解決這兩場戰爭。因此，儘管川普心知肚明臺海可能開戰，但此刻他明確選擇不投入心力。

四、川普看臺灣的焦點在貿易與軍售：當川普關注臺灣時，他主要看重兩點，一是臺灣對美貿易順差，特別是在半導體產業；儘管他曾指控臺灣「竊取」美國技術，但實際上，他更希望看到臺灣科技企業擴大對美投資。二是美臺軍事合作，特別是對美軍購。根據路透社5月30日報導，川普第二任期有意對臺出售總額超過其第一任期所賣的183億美元軍武。

五、亞洲國家對臺也興趣缺缺：過去一週，東協（ASEAN）舉行年度峰會，並首次與海灣合作理事會（GCC）及中國舉行三方會議。會後發表的聯合聲明，完全未提及臺灣。本週末登場的亞洲安全會議「香格里拉對話」，雖預期美國國防部長赫格塞斯會提到臺海局勢，但外界更關注中國是否會派員出席（中國防長董軍缺席），顯見臺灣恐難成焦點，特別是在緬甸、烏克蘭、以色列及非洲多地戰火未歇之際，臺灣自然被擠出國際關注的熱點名單。

當然，臺灣政府並未停止外交努力。正如往年，臺灣衛福部長率「行動團隊」前往瑞士日內瓦，於世界衛生組織（WHO）年度大會場邊舉行「取暖派對」（Pity Party），爭取國際聲援。近幾周，也有來自美國參議院、衆議院、歐洲議會及英國工黨的外賓訪臺。此外，臺北國際電腦展也引起了國際媒體的廣泛關注，但他們的焦點，仍是如輝達執行長黃仁勳，在展上針對美國對中AI晶片出口限制的抱怨。

當然，一切現狀都可能快速改變，讓臺灣再次登上國際頭條。總統賴清德若過境美國、訪問加勒比海或中美洲邦交國，激怒中國；美國衆議院議長若於8月訪臺，如同2022年時任議長裴洛西所爲；國務卿魯比歐若採取挺臺措施，可能也會觸怒中國大陸。

此外，國內政治也可能將臺灣送上國際頭條。如立法院爆發肢體衝突、或罷免案導致民進黨重新取得多數席次，也可能吸引國際媒體目光；雖然國民黨指控賴政府爲「綠共」的言論，無論重複多少次，都不太可能被國際媒體當作重要新聞報導。

也許，臺灣目前未被國際新聞放大鏡檢視，反而是一件好事。特別是面對川普主政的美國，賴政府應記得：對方現在最想要的是一個「和平的臺海」。儘管筆者認爲美臺軍售十分重要，也希望雙方能達成協議，但臺灣也應該意識到：保持「低調」，或許纔是當下最佳策略。

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，翻譯：鍾文妤）

Why Taiwan Has Fallen Out of Global News?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

X: @RossFeingold

In recent months, Taiwan is not the subject of the same amount of international news attention as it was in recent years.

Why is this?

Perhaps relevant stakeholders are going through a period of “Taiwan fatigue”. It could be that the attention of relevant stakeholders is focused elsewhere. It could just be that Taiwan is lucky that the international media is not focused on Taiwan at the moment; usually when the international media writes about Taiwan, it is because tensions between China and Taiwan are high.

Of course, much of the silence about Taiwan also has to do with President Donald Trump, who hasn’t recently accused Taiwan of stealing the American semiconductor industry.

Certainly, what Trump talks about is a major factor in international coverage, and is one among several reasons why Taiwan is getting less media attention recently. Other reasons might include:

1. President Trump’s Domestic Focus. President Trump ran for a second term as president mostly focusing on domestic issues. The domestic issues that are most important to Trump, and take up much of his time, include economy related issues, as well as deporting illegal immigrants. President Trump is also focused on the so-called “One Big, Beautiful Bill” tax and spending legislation, and more recently, his disagreements with Harvard University.

2. Trump’s Main Foreign Policy Issue is Tariffs. When it does come to foreign policy issues, President Trump primarily focuses on tariffs. Trump’s interest in the bilateral relationship between the United States and another country begins with the trade imbalance that the United States has with that country, and what agreement can be negotiated with that country to reduce imports into the United States, increase U.S. exports to that country, and for some countries such as Taiwan, increase investment in the United States from that country. The issues that previous President Tsai Ing-wen and current President William Lai like to talk about as the basis for Taiwan’s relations with other countries, such as Taiwan “will work with democratic partners to safeguard freedom and democracy, thereby showing our determination for regional peace”, are not important foreign policy issues for Trump. Trump’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates shows that Trump is eager to do business with non-democracies, and is not eager to discuss freedom and democracy issues.

3. Trump Is Busy Negotiating Cease Fires. When Trump does spend time on foreign policy issues, currently his priority issue is negotiating a cease fire in the war between Israel and Hamas, and a cease fire in the war between Ukraine and Russia. During last year’s presidential campaign, Trump committed to using his negotiating skills to end both wars. Trump simply does not have the time to worry about increased tensions between China and Taiwan or the possibility of a war in the Taiwan Strait. Although Trump is certainly aware of the possibility of a war between China and Taiwan, for now, this is not an issue he wants to spend his time on.

4. Trump Sees Taiwan Through Trade and Weapons Sales. When Trump does spend time on Taiwan, his main interest is Taiwan’s large trade surplus with the United States. Trump is interested in Taiwan’s role in the semiconductor industry which he says Taiwan stole from the United States, but mostly his interest is in more investment in the United States by Taiwan technology companies. Trump is also interested in a significant increase in weapons purchases by Taiwan from the United States. In fact, on May 30, Reuters reported that the second Trump Administration seeks to sell to Taiwan a larger dollar amount of weapons than US$18,300,000,000 that the first Trump Administration sold to Taiwan.

5. Asia Also Not Interested in Taiwan: This past week the ASEAN countries had their summit, followed by the first ever joint meeting between ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and China. Taiwan was not mentioned in the joint statement issued at the end of the summit. This weekend is the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue. Perhaps United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will mention the Taiwan Strait in his speech. However, when it comes to China and Taiwan, there seems to be more attention on who will attend from China in the absence of its Minister of Defense Dong Jun. It is unlikely that Taiwan will receive much attention at this year’s summit, especially with wars currently going on in Myanmar, Ukraine, Israel and several places in Africa.

Of course, Taiwan’s government tries to keep Taiwan in the international news. As usual, earlier this month an “action team” including the Minister of Health and Welfare visited Geneva, Switzerland to hold “pity party” events on the sideline of the World Health Organization’s annual World Health Assembly. In recent weeks, Taiwan has hosted visitors including a United States Senator, members of the United States House of Representatives, members of the European Parliament, and Labour Party members of the United Kingdom House of Commons, among other foreign visitors.

In addition, the recent COMPUTEX technology trade show generated significant international media attention, though most of the media coverage focused on Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang’s speech and his complaints about United States restrictions on exports of certain artificial intelligence chips to China.

Of course, all this could change very quickly, and Taiwan could again become a major topic in the international news. President Lai could transit the United States on a visit to Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the Caribbean and Central America, angering China. The current Speaker of the United States House of Representatives could visit Taiwan in August, just like then-speaker Nancy Pelosi did in 2022, angering China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio could take an action to show United States support for Taiwan, which would also anger Taiwan.

Alternatively, domestic issues could put Taiwan into the international news. Members of the Legislative Yuan could have another fight, which often gets international news coverage, but in a negative way. It’s also possible that the ongoing efforts to recall legislators gets Taiwan into the international news, especially if the Democratic Progressive Party regains a majority in the Legislative Yuan (however, on the other hand, the Chinese Nationalist Party’s constant accusation of “Green Communism” by the Lai Administration will not result in international media attention, no matter how many times the Chinese Nationalist Party makes the accusation).

Perhaps this period when Taiwan is not in the international news, but several other “hot spots” around the world are dominating the international news, is a good thing for Taiwan. In dealing with President Trump, the Lai Administration might want to keep in mind a peaceful Taiwan Strait is precisely what the Trump Administration, and President Trump, want at this time.

While the proposed weapons sales to Taiwan are necessary and this author hopes that Taiwan and the United States reach an agreement on this, Taiwan should recognize the many benefits of remaining “low key”.