方恩格專欄》賴總統艱困的一週
美國總統川普宣佈，對臺灣進口至美國的產品，加徵32%關稅，對賴政府是一大考驗。（摘自總統府發言人粉絲專頁）
過去一週，可能是賴清德總統自5月20日就職以來，最具挑戰的一週。
首先，中國大陸進行了大規模軍事演習，這不僅是對臺灣的持續威脅，更是提醒大衆，中國隨時可能動武，來促成統一。此外，這也顯示出，中國的軍事實力相較於臺灣持續快速增長，而賴清德推動國防改革，與提升國防預算的表現，仍有很大改善空間。
接着，前立法院長游錫堃辦公室的一名前助理，因向中國大陸泄密被捕。隨後，賴清德的一名諮議也因泄密落網。
最後，美國總統川普宣佈，對臺灣進口至美國的產品，加徵32%關稅。
毫無疑問，臺灣的兩大在野黨——國民黨與臺灣民衆黨將會以這三件事問責於賴清德，因其未優先與中國溝通，反而堅持「抗中保臺」；和未能對身邊官員落實完善的安全審查；以及低估川普對臺灣產品加徵關稅的可能性。
但事實上，這些發展都不令人意外。
自賴清德就任以來，中國不時舉行各種規模的軍事演習。即使未進行演習，中國軍機仍頻繁逼近臺灣，中國海軍與海警船也經常在臺灣外島，甚至本島附近航行。
中國對臺灣社會的滲透十分猖獗，越來越多軍方人員涉及向中國泄密一事，即爲明證。對此，賴清德政府最近宣佈了17項反滲透措施，因此，若要說臺灣有誰最清楚中國滲透的嚴重性，賴清德肯定是其中之一。既然如此，他的諮議被指控泄密，對賴清德來說，不該感到意外，而游錫堃與賴清德，對未徹底審查聘用人員背景一事，也難辭其咎。
此外，美國貿易代表署在4月2日發佈的《國家貿易評估報告》，列出了臺灣對美國產品設下的關稅與非關稅障礙。美國對這些貿易壁壘積怨已久，曾任行政院長與副總統的賴清德，對此應瞭然於心，因此，賴清德及其貿易政策小組，對這份報告中的內容，不應太過驚訝。
在應對這三大挑戰時，本文作者建議賴政府避免以下幾種做法：
1、不要倉促做決定
局勢瞬息萬變，臺灣的政治人物或政府單位若倉促決策，往往會犯錯。例如，4月1日中國軍演首日，國防部發言人表示，解放軍沒有進行實彈演習。但到了第二天，中國軍方確實進行了實彈演習，儘管地點距離臺灣本島仍有一段距離。
同樣地，賴清德與行政院也急於在臉書與新聞中，宣佈各種因應產業衝擊的措施。這是否意味着，賴政府對於能否與川普政府談判，進而降低關稅毫無信心？
2、不要過度反應
人在不悅時，常意氣用事。賴清德與行政院長卓榮泰，對川普政府的決定感到不滿，乃人之常情，但現在，正是賴清德展現領導力的時候。他需要安撫公衆與業界的擔憂，同時向川普政府表明，臺灣真心希望進行談判。然而，賴清德、卓榮泰及其他政府官員急於在社羣媒體上回應，反而是反應過度。政府內部應先謹慎討論後，再正式對外迴應。
另一方面，也有些正向、卻顯得愚昧的迴應。有網友在社羣平臺「X」上高興地表示，川普將臺灣列爲「國家」。這無異於自嗨的「阿Ｑ精神」，因爲，川普宣佈的課稅對象包括「國家」與「地區」，與美國是否承認臺灣爲國家無關。
3、不要羞辱美國
在川普的聲明後，賴清德在臉書上使用了「不合理」一詞三次，來形容關稅。行政院則在聲明中使用了六次「不合理」。這無疑是一種外交上的冒犯。
另一種對美方的冒犯，是將臺美貿易順差擴大的責任，歸咎於美國的政策變化。美國政府（無論是拜登還是川普）限制對中的科技貿易，是爲了削弱中國軍力發展，防止其侵略臺灣。賴政府竟然以這點問責美國，顯得相當奇怪。
賴政府不應假設川普政府，會對這些冒犯視而不見。例如，一則關於「臺灣對提高關稅的反應」的英文報導便以「臺灣稱美國關稅不合理，並部分歸因於川普政策下的貿易順差。」爲標題。
4、不要低估臺灣人民的智慧
川普宣佈關稅前，卓榮泰在臉書發文稱政府已準備好應對措施，請大家「安心入睡」。然而，這句話在臺灣網路與電視媒體上，皆引發大量批評。
5、不要將這些事件政治化
國民黨與臺灣民衆黨急於問責賴政府，而民進黨則頻繁指控另兩黨「親中」。然而這些內鬥，對解決臺灣當前的困境毫無幫助。也許，在這樣的情勢下，臺灣是時候團結一致，放下政治鬥爭。例如，民進黨立法院黨團總召柯建銘，原本以國民黨立委爲目標，呼籲發動「大罷免」，而國民黨則以行動回敬，試圖罷免民進黨立委。面對中國的軍事威脅和滲透，及高漲的美國關稅壓境，現在，是臺灣團結的時刻，而非汲汲於內部的政治操作。（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，翻譯：鍾文妤）
President Lai’s Challenging Week
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
X: @RossFeingold
The past week was probably the most challenging week in President Lai Ching-te’s presidency following his inauguration last May 20.
First, the mainland engaged in large scale military exercises, a reminder of the constant threat that the mainland might use military force to bring about unification with Taiwan. It’s also a reminder that the mainland’s military power as compared to Taiwan’s continues to rapidly increase, and President Lai’s efforts to reform Taiwan’s military and increase defense spending still have much room for improvement.
Next, a former aide in Legislative Yuan Speaker You Si-Kun’s office was arrested for leaking secrets to the mainland, which was followed shortly after by an advisor to President Lai also being arrested for leaking secrets to the mainland.
Finally, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 32% tariff on products from Taiwan imported into the United States.
Certainly, Taiwan’s two opposition parties, the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, or KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), will argue that these three challenges are President Lai’s fault. They will say Lai failed to prioritize dialogue with the mainland and instead prioritized “Oppose China, Save Taiwan” (抗中，保臺), that he failed to implement proper security measures over his advisors, and, he underestimated the likelihood that Trump will impose additional tariffs on Made in Taiwan goods.
In fact, none of these developments come as a surprise.
After President Lai took office, China has periodically held military exercises of varying size, and even when not conducting a military exercise, China’s aircraft routinely fly close to Taiwan, and China’s navy or coast guard routinely sail close to Taiwan’s offshore islands or even close to Taiwan island.
Infiltration by the mainland in Taiwan’s society is rampant, as evidenced by the growing number of cases involving military personnel passing secrets to the mainland. President Lai recently announced seventeen measures to deal with infiltration, so, if there is anyone in Taiwan familiar with the issue of the mainland’s infiltration, it is President Lai himself. The fact that his own advisor might have leaked secrets to the mainland should come as no surprise to Lai, and there is no excuse for then-Speaker You or Lai’s failure to conduct thorough due diligence on the people who they hire.
The United States Trade Representative National Trade Estimate Report released on April 2 listed the tariff and non-tariff barriers that Taiwan imposes on products from the United States. The United States has complained for a long time about many of these trade barrier. Having previously served as premier and vice president, President Lai would be very familiar with this topic. None of the trade barriers listed in the report should come as a surprise to President Lai or his trade policy team.
In dealing with these three issues, there are certain things this author recommends that the Lai Administration avoid doing:
1. Do not rush to make decisions. In rapidly developing, and changing, situations, it is a mistake for Taiwan’s politicians or government agencies to rush to make decisions. For example, on April 1st, the first day of the mainland’s military exercises, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense spokesperson said that the mainland had not engaged in live fire exercises. However, on the second day of the exercise, the mainland’s military did in fact hold live fire exercises, though the live fire occurred a long distance away from Taiwan island.
Similarly, President Lai in a Facebook post, and the Executive Yuan, rushed to announce measures to assist Taiwan industry. Does this mean the Lai Administration has no confidence in its ability to negotiate with the Trump administration a reduction in the new tariffs?
2. Do not overreact. People often make bad decisions when they are upset, and it’s understandable that President Lai and Premier Cho are upset at the Trump administration. But now is the time for President Lai to display his leadership abilities, calm the concerns of both the public and industry, and demonstrate to the Trump administration that Taiwan sincerely wants to negotiate. The speed at which President Lai, Premier Cho Jung-tai, and other government officials rushed to post their reaction on social media might in fact be overreacting. Regardless, the Lai administration’s response should only come after careful internal discussions.
On the other hand, there was also a “happy”, but silly, over reactions. One person on the social media platform “X” reacted happily to Taiwan being listed by Trump as a “country”. This is a self-excitement reaction. In fact, the targets for higher tariffs announced by Trump include countries and territories, and has nothing to do with whether or not the United States recognizes Taiwan as a country.
3. Do not insult the United States. Following Trump’s announcement, in a Facebook post, President Lai described the tariffs as unreasonable, using the word “unreasonable” three times. Taiwan’s Executive Yuan also issued a statement that called the tariffs “unreasonable”, using the word unreasonable six times.
A second insult to the United States is blaming Taiwan’s growing trade surplus with the United States on “result of policy shifts” by the United States. It’s true that the United States under both former President Joe Biden and current President Trump has imposed restricts on technology trade with China. The reason for such policies is to limit the ability of the mainland’s military to improve its capabilities, including its capability to invade Taiwan. It is strange that the Lai administration would use this to blame the United States for Taiwan’s large trade surplus with the United States.
The Lai administration should not assume that the Trump administration doesn’t see such insults. For example, a headline in an English language media report about Taiwan’s reaction to the tariffs was “Taiwan says US tariffs unreasonable, partly blames Trump policies for trade surplus”.
4. Do not insult the intelligence of the Taiwan people. In a Facebook post shortly before President Trump announced the tariffs, Premier Cho wrote that the government has prepared measures to deal with the tariffs, and that people in Taiwan should sleep well. Unfortunately for Premier Cho, this statement received significant negative feedback in Taiwan both online and on television.
5. Do not make these developments partisan. The KMT and TPP rushed to blame the Lai administration for these challenges, and recently, the DPP frequently blames the KMT and TPP for being pro-China. None of these domestic blame games will solve Taiwan’s recent challenges.
Perhaps given these recent events, it is a time for unity in Taiwan, and a time to drop the efforts at “big recall” originally called for by the DPP’s Legislative Yuan caucus whip Ker Chien-ming to target KMT politicians, which the KMT reciprocated with efforts to recall DPP politicians.
After all, in the face of mainland military threats, infiltration into Taiwan by the mainland, and higher United States tariffs, now is the time for unity in Taiwan, and not for scoring domestic political points.