方恩格專欄》成爲全民總統 賴清德該做的事

24席國民黨立委、新竹市長高虹安罷免投票26日舉行，多位國民黨立委宣佈勝選，許多網友也灌爆總統兼民進黨主席賴清德（圖）的臉書。（示意圖，中時資料照）

隨着7月26日針對24名國民黨立法委員的首次罷免投票，以及臺灣民衆黨（TPP）前新竹市市長高虹安的罷免投票，罷免程序的第一階段已結束，民進黨推動的大罷免大潰敗。還有7名國民黨立法委員將於8月23日面臨罷免投票，之後若有被罷免成功的地區，必須在3個月內舉行補選。

然而，對於民進黨的賴清德來說，他的總統職務必須處理繁忙的國家安全、內政政策、丹娜絲颱風災後重建及與美國的貿易關係議程，會與他作爲黨主席的職責要求相沖突。

以下是賴總統在未來幾周「必須做的事」清單中的關鍵項目：

一、繼續爭取8月23日罷免投票的勝利：7月26日的結果民進黨大潰敗，8月23日還有7場針對國民黨立委的罷免投票。作爲民進黨主席，賴總統必須努力贏得8月23日的罷免投票。因此，在接下來的一個月裡，賴總統將繼續專注於擔任黨主席的工作。至少在短期內，賴總統的注意力將在總統職責和黨主席職責之間分散，這對賴總統來說是一個具有挑戰性的情況。

二、與美國的關係：在罷免選舉的最後幾天，對臺灣的政治人物來說，罷免似乎比與川普政府未完成的貿易談判更爲迫切。但臺灣與川普政府達成協議的截止日期是8月1日，除非川普總統再給予延長。如果在8月1日之前沒有達成協議，臺灣的出口將面臨32％的可能關稅。無論7月26日的罷免投票結果如何，以及賴總統在8月23日支持罷免投票的責任，在接下來的幾天裡，賴總統也需要投入大量時間關注與美國的貿易談判。在亞洲國家中，川普最近宣佈了與印尼、日本、菲律賓和越南的貿易協議。

然而，儘管臺美之間進行了多輪談判，仍然沒有達成協議。這尤其奇怪，因爲在今年年初川普總統上任不久後，賴總統宣佈了臺灣願意達成的協議，包括農業、工業、石油和天然氣產品的採購計劃，以及武器採購。賴總統還表示，臺灣企業將擴大在美國的投資，賴總統還提議臺灣與美國之間的雙邊零關稅待遇，但川普政府不太可能同意這一點。

三、與貿易談判無關，負責與臺灣關係、中國關係以及印太地區政策的川普政府官員，也希望瞭解臺灣政府對罷免選舉的原因以及結果。對臺灣政府來說，好消息是川普政府可能會參考與民進黨總統與立法院多數執政合作的情況，這與2017年至2021年川普政府1.0期間的情況相似。許多國民黨立委親中的指控，以及中國試圖干預罷免選舉的說法，可能會受到川普政府以及關注中國問題的美國民主黨和共和黨國會議員的熱烈歡迎。

四、與蔡英文的和解：在經過數月的沉默後，前總統蔡英文於7月23日終於公開對罷免事件發表評論。蔡英文對組織罷免運動的公民團體表示感謝，但她並沒有具體說出「投贊成票」。爲什麼蔡英文等了這麼久纔對罷免表達意見？爲什麼她不直接說「投贊成票」？這些問題的答案尚不清楚，但如果賴清德與蔡英文之間存在任何分歧，爲了民進黨的團結及未來選舉的成功，以及蔡英文在海外爲臺灣政府擔任擁護者的角色，他們必須解決彼此的分歧。

五、社會和解：賴清德在他的第一任總統任期內還剩下不到3年的時間。這是一段漫長的歲月，他需要在這段時間內成爲所有臺灣人民的總統。這將面臨挑戰，因爲在2026年11月的地方選舉中，臺灣人民將再次在「選舉季」開始時被政治分裂。儘管如此，賴必須繼續努力說服在2024年1月未投票給他的近60％的選民，以及那些反對罷免的人，讓他們對賴清德作爲國家總統充滿信心。立法院黨團幹事長柯建銘在罷免投票前幾天所說的「不去罷免非臺灣人」的言論，對社會和解並沒有幫助。事實上，賴總統必須努力解決社會和解的挑戰。

筆者意識到，臺灣有些人表示，他們從未見過臺灣社會如此激烈的政治分裂。作爲長期觀察臺灣政治的人士以及長期居住在臺灣的居民，筆者認爲，臺灣政治在民主化後經歷過幾次類似的激烈政治分裂時刻，例如：2004年有爭議的總統選舉、2014年佔領立法院的「太陽花運動」，甚至2024年總統選舉的結果，賴清德僅以40.05％的選票當選。儘管如此，正如筆者之前在本報上所寫的，當罷免投票結束後，賴總統必須考慮如何成爲一個全民總統，而不是民進黨總統。

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席）

President Lai’s Post-Referendum “To Do” List.

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

X: @rossfeingold

With the vote on July 26 in the first round of recall votes that target twenty four Chinese Nationalist Party (or Kuomintang, KMT) legislators, along with the recall vote that targeted Hsinchu City Mayor Ann Kao formerly of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), the first stage of the recall process is over. Seven more KMT legislators will face recall votes on August 23, and afterwards, within three months by elections, if any, must be held.

However, for President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), his busy agenda of national security, domestic policy, Typhoon Danas reconstruction, and trade relations with the United States, will continue to conflict with the requirements of his duties as DPP chairman.

Here are key items on President Lai’s “to do” list in the coming weeks:

1. Fight for Victory in the August 23 Recall Votes: Regardless of the result on July 26, there are seven more recall votes against KMT legislators on Augustu 23. As the Chairman of the DPP, President Lai must make an effort to win the legislator recalls on August 23. Thus, for the next month, President Lai will continue to also focus on being Chairman Lai.

In the short term at least, President Lai’s attention will be divided between his presidential duties and his political duties, a challenging situation for President Lai to be in.

2. Relations With the United States: In the final days of the recall election, it appears that the recall became more urgent for Taiwan’s politicians than the unfinished trade negotiations with the Trump Administration. But the deadline for Taiwan to reach an agreement with the Trump Administration is August 1st, unless President Trump grants another extension. If there is no agreement before August 1st, Taiwan’s exports face a possible tariff of 32%. Whatever the results of the recall votes on July 26, and President Lai’s responsibilities to support the recall votes on August 23, in the coming days President Lai also needs to devote a significant amount of time to the trade negotiations with the United States. Among countries in Asia, President Trump has recently announced trade agreements with Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam.

However, despite multiple rounds of negotiations between Taiwan and the United States, there is no agreement yet. This is especially peculiar because earlier this year shortly after President Trump took office, President Lai announced what Taiwan was willing to agree to, including procurement plans for agricultural, industrial, petroleum, and natural gas products, as well as weapons procurement. President Lai also said that Taiwan companies would expand investments in the US. President Lai also proposed Taiwan – United States bilateral zero-tariff treatment, but the Trump Administration is unlikely to agree to this.

Separate from the trade negotiations, Trump Administration officials responsible for relations with Taiwan, relations with China, and policy in the Indo Pacific region will also want to understand from the Taiwan government the reasons for the recall elections, and what factors led to the result. The good news for the Taiwan government is that the Trump Administration probably refers to work with a DPP president and with a Legislative Yuan that has a DPP majority, as was the situation during the first Trump Administration from 2017 to 2021. The accusation that many KMT legislators are pro-China and that China attempted to interfere with the recall elections will probably be very well received by the Trump Administration and both Democratic and Republica members of Congress who follow China-related issues.

4. Reconciliation with Tsai Ing-wen: On July 23, after months of silence, former President Tsai finally publicly commented about the recalls. Tsai Ing-wen expressed her thanks to the civil society organizations that organized the recall campaigns, but she did not specifically say “vote yes”. Why did Tsai Ing-wen wait so long to express an opinion about the recalls? Why didn’t she directly say “vote yes”? The answers to these questions are unknown, but if there are any disagreements between President Lai and Tsai Ing-wen, for the unity of the DPP and the DPP’s success in future elections, as well as Tsai Ing-wen’s role as an advocate in her overseas travels for DPP-led government in Taiwan, the two of them must resolve whatever differences they have.

5. Societal Reconciliation: President Lai has a little less than three more years remaining in his first term as president. That is a long time, and he needs to be the president for all people of Taiwan during that time. This will be challenging with the local election in November 2026, in which Taiwan people will again be divided by politics when the “election season” begins in the spring of 2026. Regardless, Lai must continue to make an effort to convince the nearly 60% of the voters who did not vote for him in January 2024, and those that voted against the recalls, that they can have faith in President Lai as the country’s president. Comments such as Legislative Yuan Caucus Whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) saying, days before the recall vote, that people who voted against the recall are not Taiwanese (「不去罷免非臺灣人」) are not helpful for societal reconciliation. Indeed, President Lai will have to work hard to solve the challenge of societal reconciliation.

This author is aware that some people in Taiwan have said that they have never seen Taiwan society as politically divided as it is now. As a long time observer of Taiwan politics and as a long time and resident of Taiwan, this author’s view is that Taiwan politics, following democratization, has experienced similar moments of intense political division. Examples include the disputed presidential election in 2004, the “Sunflower Movement” that occupied the Legislative Yuan in 2014, and even the 2024 presidential election result, as President Lai was elected with only 40.05% of the vote. Regardless, as this author previously wrote in this newspaper, when the recalls are over, President Lai must consider how to be a unifier, and less partisan.