方恩格專欄》賴政府因應川普關稅威脅的選擇
美國總統川普的關稅政策，正劍指半導體產品，此舉將對科技業造成巨大壓力。圖／本報資料照片
美國新任總統川普比其他人更關心某些問題。例如，在國內政策問題上，非法移民問題是川普高度重視的問題，就職幾周後就接連就此問題頒佈數項行政命令，指示美國軍方協助邊境安全，命令美國軍方將非法移民送回原籍國，並制定計劃將非法移民關押在古巴關塔那摩灣美國海軍基地。
川普基本盤也非常關注文化爭議問題，川普已經在文化戰爭問題上採取了行動，終止了聯邦政府促進「多元、平等、共榮」（DEI）的項目，併發布了行政命令，禁止跨性別選手參與女子運動比賽。
但如果有一個問題最讓川普感興趣，那就是美國與主要貿易伙伴之間的貿易逆差。美國與中國以及許多其他國家都存在着巨大的貿易逆差。去年競選期間，時任候選人的川普說，「關稅」是英文字典裡最美的詞。就職幾周以來，川普威脅對來自加拿大和墨西哥的商品徵收更高的關稅（儘管川普暫時推遲了這些關稅的實施），而且，他還對來自中國的商品實施了更高的關稅。
去年競選期間，川普多次表示臺灣「偷走」了美國的半導體產業。最近，川普在就職典禮結束後與共和黨國會議員會面時談到半導體行業時表示，「他們離開了我們，去了臺灣，那裡佔據了晶片業務的98%左右」。最終，川普會關注臺灣對美國的貿易順差。臺灣的財政部1月9日發佈消息稱，2024年對美淨出口將成長83.5%，達到649億美元，這是淨出口連續第6年成長。
川普很可能會提議對臺灣製造（MIT）產品徵收更高的關稅，以減少臺灣對美國的鉅額貿易順差。爲阻止美國對臺灣提高關稅，賴清德政府可以採取幾項選擇。
首先，賴清德總統可以更積極地再次尋求與川普通話。從去年11月5日大選日至今年1月20日川普就職典禮的十週過渡期內，川普未能接聽賴總統的電話，無疑對賴總統而言是件憾事。川普2月3日與墨西哥總統和加拿大總理的通話，讓這些領導人說服川普，他們將在邊境安全和芬太尼問題上採取更多行動，川普也同意延後實施關稅。這顯示與川普直接互動的重要性。
如果賴總統無法與川普通話，臺灣或許該尋求外交部長林佳龍與美國國務卿盧比歐通話。在擔任參議員期間，盧比歐證明了他對臺灣非常友好。林佳龍可以向盧比歐表達臺灣的訴求。
第二，這也可能是臺灣會採取的選擇，就是從美國購買更多武器。在川普第一任時期，川普政府批准向臺灣出售昂貴的武器系統。其中包括出售108輛M1A2坦克、66架F-16V戰鬥機，以及其他不同類型軍事裝備的定期銷售。近期已有軍方報導稱，臺灣已向美國提議購買6架E-2D先進鷹眼空中預警機（AEW），以取代目前使用的E-2K AEW機。
筆者認爲，只要臺灣願意購買武器，川普政府就會願意出售，儘管川普可能努力與中國大陸就貿易問題達成協議。同時，臺灣應該停止接受美國的免費軍事援助，因爲這向川普傳遞了臺灣是否願意自衛的錯誤訊息。然而，爲了讓臺灣獲得製造大型武器的預算，賴總統需要改善與在野黨（國民黨和民衆黨在立法院多數）的關係。
第三，臺灣政府可以鼓勵包括半導體產業在內的臺灣科技產業加強對美國投資。對川普來說，臺積電在亞利桑那州的650億美元投資並不足以讓他滿意，尤其是臺積電還根據川普所批評的《晶片法》獲得了美國政府66億美元的補貼。
第四，臺灣可以購買更多美國農產品，以及從美國購買更多天然氣。但臺灣應該依照市場價格採購，賴清德政府不應該干預。
最後，還有「迦薩走廊選擇」。川普近期多次表達對美國獲取外國領土的興趣。其中包括加拿大、格陵蘭、巴拿馬運河以及最近的迦薩走廊。臺灣有一些非政府組織主張臺灣成爲第51州。同樣，臺灣也有人認爲，美國依然是二戰結束後的佔領國，美國只不過把接受日本投降的工作「委外」給了中華民國軍隊，並沒有把臺澎金馬的主權移交給中華民國。因此，臺灣或許可以簡單地要求川普政府恢復對臺灣的軍事佔領，宣稱爲臺灣成爲第51州做準備。這或將解決關稅問題。
最終，無論臺灣計劃如何應對美國徵收關稅的威脅，臺灣應做好向川普政府讓步的準備。
（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席）
The Lai Administration and the Trump Administration: Things to Think About
By Ross Darrell Feingold
@RossFeingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
New United States President Donald Trump cares more about certain issues than others. For example, when it comes to domestic policy issues, illegal immigration is a high priority for Trump, and in the few weeks after his inauguration he has issued several executive orders on this issue, instructed the United States military to assist with border security, ordered United States military aircraft to fly illegal immigrants back to their countries of origin, and made plans for illegal immigrants to be held at the United States naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Trump’s base is also very concerned about culture war issues, and Trump has already taken action on culture war issues by ending programs in the federal government to promote “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (“DEI”), as well as issuing an executive order banning transvestite women from participating in womens school sports.
But if there is one issue that interests Trump most of all, it is the United States trade deficits with its major trading partners. The United States has a large trade deficit with China, as well as many other countries. During the election campaign last year, then-candidate Trump said that “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the English dictionary. In the few weeks since his inauguration, Trump threatened higher tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico (though Trump has temporarily delayed the implementation of these tariffs), and, he has implemented higher tariffs on goods from China.
During the election campaign last year, Trump said several times that Taiwan “stole” the semiconductor industry from the United States.
More recently, after the inauguration and at a meeting with Republican members of Congress, Trump said about the semiconductor industry “They left us and they went to Taiwan, which is about 98% of the chip business”.
Eventually, the time will come when Trump focuses on Taiwan’s trade surplus with the United States. Net exports to the United States jumped by 83.5% to US$64.9 billion in 2024, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance on January 9th, the sixth straight year that the net figure has climbed.
The likelihood is high that Trump will propose higher tariffs on Made in Taiwan (“MIT”) goods in order to reduce Taiwan’s large trade surplus with the United States.
The President William Lai Ching-te Administration has several options for Taiwan to try and prevent higher United States tariffs.
First, President William Lai can pursue again with more enthusiasm to have a phone call with Trump. It certainly was a big disappointment for President Lai that Trump did not take a phone call from President Lai during the ten week transition period between election day on November 5 last year, and Trump’s inauguration on January 20 this year. The phone calls that Trump had with Mexico President and Canada Prime Minister on February 3rd helped those leaders to convince Trump that they will take more action on border security and fentanyl, and Trump agreed to delay the implementation of tariffs. This shows the importance of direct interaction with Trump.
If a phone call between President Lai and Trump is not possible, perhaps Taiwan should pursue a phone call between Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung and United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio. During his time as Senator, Rubio proved he is a very good friend of Taiwan. Foreign Minister Lin can appeal to Secretary of State
Second, and probably the option that Taiwan will pursue, is to buy more weapons from the United States. In the first Trump Administration, Trump approved the sale to Taiwan of expensive weapons systems. This included the sale of 108 M1A2 tanks, and the sale of 66 F-16V fighter jets, along with other periodic sales of different types of military equipment.
There are already recent military reports that Taiwan has proposed to the United States a purchase of six E-2D Advanced Hawkeye airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft to replace the E-2K AEW aircraft it currently uses.
This author believes that as long as Taiwan is a willing buyer of weapons, the Trump Administration will be a willing seller, notwithstanding Trump’s possible efforts to reach a deal with mainland China over trade issues. At the same time, Taiwan should cease to accept free military aid from the United States, as it sends the wrong message to Trump about Taiwan’s willingness to defend itself.
However, in order for Taiwan to obtain the budgets to make large weapons purposes, President Lai will need to improve his relationship with the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party and Taiwan People’s Party majorities in the Legislative Yuan.
Third, the Taiwan government can encourage its technology industry, including the semiconductor industry, to invest even more in the United States. For Trump, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s USD65,000,000,000 investment in Arizona is insufficient to satisfy him, especially as TSMC received a subsidy of USD6,600,000,000 from the United States government under the CHIPS and Science Act, which is a law that Trump has criticized.
Fourth, Taiwan can buy more United States agricultural products, as well as to buy more natural gas from the United States. However, Taiwan should only do so at market prices, and the Lai Administration should not interfere with these purchasing decisions.
Finally, there is the “Gaza Strip Option”. Trump has recently repeatedly expressed an interest in the United States acquiring foreign territories. This includes Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal, and more recently, the Gaza Strip. There are non-government organizations in Taiwan that have advocated for Taiwan to be the 51st state. Similarly, there are some in Taiwan who believe that the United States is still the occupying power from the end of World War Two, and the United States merely “outsourced” to the Republic of China army the acceptance of Japan’s surrender, and the United States did not pass to the Republic of China sovereignty over the islands of Taiwan and Penghu. Thus, perhaps Taiwan can simply ask the Trump Administration to resume the military occupation of Taiwan in preparation for Taiwan to become the 51st state. This will solve the tariff issue!
Ultimately, whatever Taiwan plans to do in response to threatened tariffs on MIT products, Taiwan better be prepared to make concessions to the Trump Administration.