紐時賞析／熱到流汗變冷得發抖 全球氣溫波動加劇

法國中部勃艮地大區的夏布利一座葡萄園2022年4月上午啓動灑水機制，保護園內免受傷害後，冰覆蓋在葡萄牙上。美聯社

Rapid Temperature Swings Increasing

熱到流汗變冷得發抖 氣溫波動加劇

A September heat wave switching into a snowstorm over one day in the Rocky Mountains. Winter snowfall suddenly melting and saturating fields of dormant crops, before refreezing and encasing them in damaging ice. Early spring warmth prompting plants to blossom followed by a cold snap that freezes and drops their petals.

落磯山脈去年9月一天之內，天氣從熱浪變成降下暴風雪。冬季降雪突然融化，休眠作物的農田被雪水浸透，天氣隨後重返冰天雪地並將它們冰封在具破壞性的冰層中。初春的溫暖促使植物開花，卻被隨後的氣溫驟降凍傷，花瓣因此凋落。

Rapid temperature change events like these have increased in frequency and intensity over recent decades, a new study found.

一項新研究發現，這類氣溫快速變化事件在近數十年發生的頻率和強度增加。

The transition periods for these abrupt temperature shifts have also shortened, according to the study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.

發表在「自然通訊」期刊的研究顯示，這些突如其來溫度變化的過渡期也有所縮短。

Because the quick changes in temperature give communities and ecosystems little chance to respond, they may pose greater challenges than heat waves or cold snaps alone, said Wei Zhang, an assistant professor of climate science at Utah State University and one of the lead authors of the study.

猶他州立大學氣候科學助理教授、該研究主要作者之一張偉表示，由於氣溫快速變化使社區和生態系統幾乎沒有機會反應，它們可能相較於單獨的熱浪和寒流帶來更大挑戰。

The researchers warned these temperature flips could have damaging effects on people and natural environments, including destruction of crops, harm to ecosystems and strains on power infrastructure. And low-income countries, where there is less access to weather forecasting and infrastructure is less resilient, are more vulnerable.

研究員警告，這些氣溫驟變可能對人們和自然環境有破壞性影響，包括破壞作物、傷害生態系統及對電力基礎設施造成壓力。而且低收入國家因較難以取得天氣預報，基礎設施適應力也較弱，更容易受影響。

The researchers examined temperature data from 1961 to 2023 to identify global patterns in sudden weather shifts, where temperatures in an area either jumped from cold temperatures to warm or plunged from warm to cold within five days. They found that instances of these flips increased in more than 60% of regions they surveyed.

研究員仔細檢查1961年至2023年氣溫數據，以確定全球天氣突然變化的模式，即一個地區五天內從寒冷氣溫驟升至暖和，或溫暖氣溫驟降至寒冷。它們發現，在所調查的地區中，超過60%的地區氣溫驟變狀況增加。

The largest increases in frequency were observed in South America, West Europe, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Some areas, including the polar regions, showed different behavior and experienced fewer events.

氣溫驟變頻率增幅最多的地區是南美洲、西歐、非洲，及南亞和東南亞。包括極區在內的有些地區呈現不同狀況，且發生的事件較少。

While the climate mechanisms driving changes to these temperature-flip events are not yet fully understood, Zhang said, there is a significant trend showing that these events are becoming more frequent, stronger and quicker in many areas of the globe.

張偉表示，儘管目前尚未完全瞭解促使這些氣溫驟變事件變化的氣候機制，但有個明顯的趨勢表明，這些事件在全球許多地區變得更頻繁、更強烈且更快速。

Sudden temperature changes can disrupt the growth of plants, posing challenges for agriculture.

氣溫突然改變可能擾亂植物生長，爲農業帶來挑戰。

In natural environments, plant loss from these flip events could set off a series of other consequences, like less available food for animals, Zhang said. Another risk from back-to-back severe temperatures is increased pressure on power systems, which can cause people to lose heat or air conditioning during dangerous temperatures.

張偉表示，在自然環境中，植物因氣溫翻轉受損，可能引發連鎖反應，例如動物可利用的食物減少。另一項風險是極端氣溫連續發生，對電力系統造成更大壓力，導致在危險氣候下民衆失去暖氣或者空調等基本生活所需。

文／Christina Kelso，譯／羅方妤

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