紐時賞析／從減稅轉向關稅 川普無視經濟警訊

包括大型連鎖超市沃爾瑪在內，許多美國業者反映川普的高關稅將帶動物價上漲。紐約時報

Pivoting From Tax Cuts to Tariffs, Trump Ignores the Warning Signs

從減稅轉向關稅 川普無視經濟警訊

The day after House Republicans approved an expensive package of tax cuts that rattled financial markets, President Donald Trump pivoted back to his other signature policy priority, unveiling a battery of tariff threats that further spooked investors and raised the prospects of higher prices on American consumers.

聯邦衆議院共和黨人通過一項昂貴的減稅方案、造成金融市場動盪的隔天，川普轉回到他另一項標誌性的優先政策，公佈一連串的關稅威脅，投資人進一步受驚，消費者面對物價上漲的可能性升高。

For a president who has fashioned himself as a shrewd steward of the economy, the decision to escalate his global trade war Friday appeared curious and costly. It capped off a week that saw Trump ignore repeated warnings that his agenda could worsen the nation’s debt, harm many of his own voters, hurt the finances of low-income families and contribute far less in growth than the White House contends.

對於一位將自己塑造成精明經濟管理者的總統來說，週五升高全球貿易戰的決定顯得令人不解又代價高昂。這一週的高潮，是川普無視一再出現的警告，這些警告指出他的政策可能會加劇國債、傷害許多他的支持者、打擊低收入家庭的財務狀況，且帶來的經濟成長遠不如白宮所宣稱的程度。

The tepid market response to the president’s economic policy approach did little to sway Trump, who Friday chose to revive the uncertainty that has kept businesses and consumers on edge. The president threatened 50% tariffs on the European Union, and a 25% tariff on Apple. Other tech companies, he said, could face the same rate.

市場對川普經濟政策冷淡，他並未因此動搖。（上）週五，他選擇再度製造不確定性，讓企業與消費者繼續提心吊膽。他威脅對歐盟徵50%關稅，並對蘋果公司徵25%關稅。他表示其他科技公司可能面臨相同稅率。

Since taking office, Trump has raced to enact his economic vision, aiming to pair generous tax cuts with sweeping deregulation that he says will expand America’s economy. He has fashioned his steep, worldwide tariffs as a political cudgel that will raise money, encourage more domestic manufacturing and improve U.S. trade relationships.

川普上任以來，全力推動他的經濟藍圖，目標是將大規模減稅與廣泛鬆綁監管結合，他聲稱這將擴大美國經濟。他將自己主張的大規模全球關稅視爲一種政治工具，用來創造財政收入、促進國內製造、並改善美國的貿易關係。

But for many of his signature policies to succeed, Trump will have to prove investors wrong, particularly those who lend money to the government by buying its debt.

然而，要讓這些招牌政策成功，川普必須說服投資人，特別是那些透過購買美國國債借錢給政府的人。

So far, bond markets are not buying his approach. Where Trump sees a “golden age” of growth, investors see an agenda that comes with more debt, higher borrowing costs, inflation and an economic slowdown. Investors who once viewed government debt as a relatively risk-free investment are now demanding that the United States pay much more to those who lend America money.

但到目前爲止，債券市場並不買帳。川普所見的是「黃金時代」的成長，投資人看到的卻是更多債務、更高的借款成本、通貨膨脹，以及經濟放緩。那些曾將美國國債視爲相對無風險投資的投資人，如今要求美國必須付出更高的借貸成本。

That is on top of businesses, including Walmart, that say they may have to raise prices as a result of the president’s global trade war. The onslaught of policy changes has also left the Federal Reserve frozen in place, unsure as to when the economy will call for lower interest rates in the face of persistent uncertainty. As a result, borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and credit cards remain onerous for Americans.

這還不包括企業的反應，包括沃爾瑪在內，都表示川普的全球貿易戰可能迫使它們提高價格。這一連串政策變動造成的不確定性使聯準會動彈不得，不確定何時可以降息。結果就是，美國人在房貸、車貸與信用卡上的借貸成本仍居高不下。

Still, Trump continues to proclaim that his policies will bring prosperity.

即便如此，川普依然宣稱他的政策將帶來繁榮。

文／Tony Romm and Colby Smith 譯／國際中心

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