紐時賞析／烏克蘭和平協議 考驗德國派兵意願

美國總統川普（右）和德國總理梅爾茨（左）6月在荷蘭海牙北約峰會低聲交談。紐約時報

Germans Are Reluctant to Send Troops to Ukraine

烏克蘭和平協議 考驗德國派兵意願

A long road remains for any peace deal in Ukraine, despite weeks of furious diplomacy and optimistic predictions from President Donald Trump. But in Germany, political leaders are already debating a crucial detail for any final agreement — whether the German army will send troops to help keep the peace.

儘管激烈的外交行動進行了數週，美國總統川普也做出樂觀預測，但烏克蘭要達成任何和平協議仍有漫長的路要走。然而在德國，領袖們已對最終協議的重要細節展開辯論—德軍是否將派遣部隊協助維和。

The debate, which has intensified in recent weeks, will help determine how much of a so-called security guarantee Europe alone could provide to Ukraine after the war concludes. It is important for Chancellor Friedrich Merz as he attempts to reestablish German leadership on the Continent and around the world.

近幾周這場辯論已加劇，將有助於決定歐洲單獨能在戰爭結束後爲烏克蘭提供多少所謂的安全保障。這對總理梅爾茨來說至關重要，因爲他試圖重新確立德國在歐洲大陸及全球的領導地位。

And, in many ways, it is the latest episode in Germany’s increasingly evolving relationship with national defense and military service, spurred on by Russian aggression and American detachment from Europe.

此外，從許多方面看，這是德國與國防和兵役關係日益演進的最新事件，而這個演變受到俄羅斯侵略和美國疏遠歐洲的刺激影響。

After successive governments allowed the military to atrophy with the end of the Cold War, Germany’s army is being rebuilt with record spending.

冷戰結束後，連續幾屆德國政府允許軍隊縮編，德國軍隊正以創紀錄的支出進行擴編。

Polls show a majority of voters approve. But Germans remain largely reluctant to serve in their armed forces and are not flocking to their local recruitment offices. The country is so in need of soldiers that the defense ministry  presented a new plan to reinstate a watered-down version of a military draft, which was passed a Cabinet vote in late August.

民調顯示，大多數選民同意這麼做。但德國民衆仍普遍不願參軍，也沒有涌向他們當地的徵兵中心。這個國家迫切需要軍人，以致國防部提出一項計劃，恢復簡化版本的徵兵制度，且在8月下旬的內閣投票通過。

Under this proposal, 18-year-old men must complete a survey assessing their fitness to serve, and the military would try to persuade those best suited to serve to enlist before going to a conscription option.

根據提議，18歲男性必須完成健康檢查，評估他們是否適合服役，軍方會試圖說服最適合服役的人從軍，最後才動用徵兵選項。

That reticence around the deployment of and serving in the military is now being tested by the prospect of sending German troops to patrol what would effectively be a front line facing Russia in Ukraine, where Nazi soldiers committed atrocities in World War II.

德國對軍事部署和服役的猶豫態度正受到考驗，因爲德國部隊可能被派往巡邏烏克蘭面對俄羅斯的實際前線，那裡是二戰期間納粹士兵犯下暴行的地方。

Merz has hinted that he would be open to including German forces in a European security mission to Ukraine, something other European leaders seem to welcome. Many Germans — including some in Merz’s own party — are less enthusiastic.

梅爾茨已暗示他願意讓德國軍隊參與歐洲對烏克蘭的安全任務，其他歐洲領導人似乎也歡迎。但許多德國人，包括梅爾茨自己政黨中的一些人，對此不太熱衷。

A German security deployment to Ukraine “would likely overwhelm” the military, which already has troops stationed in Lithuania to guard against possible Russian aggression, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told Germany’s “Table Today” podcast last month.

外交部長瓦德福月前在德國播客「今日圓桌」中表示，德國對烏克蘭的安全部署對軍隊「恐難負荷」。德國目前已在立陶宛駐軍，防範俄國可能的侵略。

文／Christopher F. Schuetze and Jim Tankersley，譯／羅方妤

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